Source: Artnet.
After a tough 2025, signs of recovery are emerging—but not for everyone. Here are the key forces reshaping the market.
And just like that, we’ve reached the end of 2025—a harder year than most for the art market. The good news is, the outlook for 2026 seems at least slightly rosier, after reports of decent sales in Miami last week and $2.2 billion worth of marquee auctions in New York last month.
What can we expect next year? A few thoughts.
1. A Market Recovery, K-Shaped
A few factors are contributing to recent bullishness in the art market, like the prospect of lower interest rates and easing geopolitical tensions. But the industry faces a hard truth: Following three years of contraction, some sectors will bounce back and others won’t, at least not right away. Such K-shaped recoveries are playing out in many industries, including the luxury field.
I pointed to signs of this back in October, at Art Basel Paris, where demand for secondary-market material was rising even as interest in fresh contemporary work was still cooling. The recent announcement of Pace Di Donna Schrader Galleries, by a trifecta of dealers who are joining forces to trade secondary market works, could be an example of people keen to stay on the upward-sloping K.
A 17th-century Rubens at Gagosian’s stand at Art Basel Paris. Courtesy of Art Basel Paris.
As the two arms of the K continue to diverge in 2026, I think we’ll see two very different versions of the art market crystallize, especially for who and what is stuck on the downward slope. We’ve already witnessed lots of galleries, big and small, downsizing or closing, and that’s likely to continue. We may also see more musical chairs among leadership at art firms, as businesses seek to freshen up their strategies, and a few more mergers and acquisitions, as I noted this past summer.
2. Everyone You Know Will Go to the Gulf
With Art Basel launching in Qatar in early February, the 20th anniversary outing of Art Dubai in April, and, come November, Frieze’s debut in Abu Dhabi—plus events like the third Diriyah Contemporary Art Biennale in Saudi Arabia and the long-anticipated opening of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi—2026 will be the year when everyone hits the Gulf.
For the last several years, the region has been investing big in cultural infrastructure, and the influx of major art fairs marks a key moment in its evolution, signaling a commercial maturity that wasn’t there before. Buoying this is a recent boom in private equity, especially in the UAE over the last couple of years, which has funneled lots of new wealth into the area.
Abu Dhabi Art 2024. Courtesy of Abu Dhabi Art.
Just the other day, billionaire Alan Howard—who operates Brevan Howard Asset Management, the largest hedge fund in Abu Dhabi—said that the Emirati capital was well on its way to joining London and New York as a global financial hub. He cited a few factors, including pro-business regulation, U.K. rule of law, and a favorable time zone for trading globally.
With competition heating up, how these arts fairs distinguish themselves from each other (and their many other editions) will be critical to their success. They all have different things going for them right now.
As the homegrown option, Art Dubai has two decades of experience in the region, and it made two key hires earlier this year: Alexie Glass-Kantor and Dunja Gottweis, both formerly of Art Basel. Frieze has the benefit of partnering with an established regional fair, Abu Dhabi Art, and may be able to level it up swiftly. (Given the lack of benches at the fair last month, I hope seating is among Frieze’s priorities.) Meanwhile, Art Basel can leverage Doha to its advantage: of these three Gulf cities, it is the chicest, boasting a stunning skyline set against the Corniche and, more importantly, well-oiled tourism infrastructure from the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
3. Dinos and Digital Are in Again
In what feels like a throwback to 2021, digital art seems to be back in vogue again, helped along by the big splash that the OpenSea-supported Zero 10 sector made at Art Basel Miami Beach. Last week, I wrote about the buzz it generated, but whether the art world can keep tech folks interested for the long haul is another matter—and a crucial one. Meanwhile, dino sales like Sotheby’s $30.5 million Ceratosaurus in July and the $5.4 million Triceratops at Phillips in November suggest fossils are fungible once more.
Cera, the Triceratops fossil. Courtesy of Phillips.
What do these two diametrically opposed categories—one focused on the very new, the other on the very old—have to do with one another? They both appeal to younger professionals (45 and under) working in the science or tech space. Or, as Kenny Schacter put it in his most recent Artnet column, “a new breed of art (and old-bone) buyers” who are “engaged in a death match of clout chasing.” He was referring mostly to tech moguls and some royal families in the Middle East, rather than your run-of-the-mill billionaires—a record number of which have been minted this year.
But if there’s one thing the art market desperately needs to see more of in 2026, it’s new and younger buyers.
The Bottom Line
After a rocky few years, the art market is inching forward again—but don’t mistake momentum for a smooth ride.